Why is crypto down today? Well, not today exactly. But that's what happened in the last few days. Damn the Santa Claus Rally!
Crypto markets are preparing for a seismic shift, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi suggesting that 2025 could redefine everything. Bitcoin (BTC) .cwp-coin-chart SVG path { dash: ; Line width: ; }
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and Ethereum (ETH) .cwp-coin-chart svg path { Stroke: ; Line width: ; }
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are capable of breaking records.
At the same time, expected regulatory reforms could reshape the US crypto landscape and shake up the way these assets are traded and secured.
(Kalshi)
Betting market Kalshi puts Bitcoin's chances of rising above $125,000 in 2025 at a solid 60%, while Ether lags behind but is still likely to clear the $5,000 mark. Polymarket players are keeping the line slightly lower but remain optimistic, giving Bitcoin a 50/50 chance of breaking $120,000 by March 2025.
With all-time highs of $108,300 for Bitcoin and $4,720 for Ether, these projected milestones could cement their role as heavyweight contenders in the global financial arena.
Why is crypto down today? Bitcoin and Ether are aiming for new records
The push for cryptocurrency-based ETFs is providing bullish momentum. Polymarket odds show a strong chance that US regulators will approve ETFs for XRP (75%), Solana (69%) and Litecoin (51%) by mid-2025, while Dogecoin lags behind with a modest 22% increase. These ETFs could attract traditional investors with regulatory safety nets, inject new liquidity and accelerate market adoption.
One of the more interesting developments is the speculation surrounding a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Kalshi puts a 59% chance that the new Trump administration could build such a reserve during his presidency – although Polymarket puts the chance of that happening within his first 100 days in office at a more modest 29%.
2025 will be known as the “Bitcoin Trump Pump.”
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Enjoy your week off before you head out. pic.twitter.com/69NRpe7DEf
– Bitcoin Munger (@bitcoinmunger) December 26, 2024
Should this happen, Bitcoin's role could evolve into something far greater, leading nations to recognize it as a strategic reserve. This would mark a turning point and make digital assets a legitimate part of official financial frameworks worldwide.
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A different view of the futures markets
While prediction markets paint a largely optimistic picture, more traditional financial instruments such as futures markets are cautious.
Traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) predict that Bitcoin's spot price will be at $98,000 and Ether's at $3,500 by March 2025 – below Kalshi and Polymarket's ambitious targets, but still reflects significant growth.
Futures markets, based on speculation and hedging, tend to cut through the noise and provide a measured view that balances the hype with market reality.
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What's next for crypto in 2025?
Skeptics aside, the crypto forecast for 2025 remains optimistic, if not the most hyped year for Bitcoin ever. The year 2025 could usher in mainstream adoption of digital currencies, cutting-edge financial products, and increased government commitment to digital currencies. For investors, the motto is clear: stay informed and informed.
With Bitcoin aiming for a mid-six-figure value and new ETFs dominating the narrative, the scene is anything but banal. 2025 could rewrite the script for digital assets in global finance.
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